ChamberFX Weekly Brief

Keep up-to-date on foreign exchange developments and news with our ChamberFX weekly briefs and monthly newsletters. These valuable insights are provided by Damon Ellam, International Payments UK, MoneyCorp. Damon is our regional representative and will be providing useful monthly FX forecasts to help chamber members with their currency strategies.

Good Afternoon,

Welcome to my July newsletter. I hope you find it useful and informative.

Please see below my thoughts for this month, a calendar of the upcoming FX market risk events, as well as the interest rate & FX rate predictions.

If you’d like to discuss strategies for your business or need insights when navigating the upcoming risk events, feel free to reach out to me directly.

Additionally, if you know other businesses who could benefit from Moneycorp services, we’d love it if you could refer them to us.

Have a great month ahead!

Best,

Damon.

 

What’s driving FX markets in July?

USD

• Federal Reserve Meeting (30^th July): No rate change expected, but market-sensitive commentary could shift USD sentiment.
• Rate Expectations & Political Pressure: President Trump is pushing for faster rate cuts and considering replacing Fed Chair Powell early, which could influence Fed policy and USD volatility.
• Economic Data - CPI (15^th July), GDP & Core PCE (31^st July): These will be crucial for gauging inflation and growth, impacting rate expectations.
• Geopolitical Risk: Heightened global tensions are affecting safe-haven flows, with the USD losing some of its traditional appeal.

GBP

• Bank of England Meeting (8^th August): July sentiment will be shaped by evolving rate expectations ahead of this meeting.
• Economic Data - GDP (11^th July) & CPI (16^th July): These will influence BoE policy outlook and GBP strength.
• Political Instability: Internal Labour Party tensions and declining public support for the government could create fiscal uncertainty, weakening the pound.

EUR

• Strong Performance: EUR/USD up 15% year-to-date, driven by reduced confidence in the USD and increased investor preference for the EU.
• ECB Meeting (24^th July): Markets expect no further rate cuts in the next year, supporting euro strength.
• Safe-Haven Shift: The euro is benefiting from a reallocation of global capital away from the US. If this changes for any reason, the market could shift in the opposite direction.

Risk Event Calendar

 

Date (Jul)	Time (UK)	Country	Currency	Description
Tue 1st	10:00 AM	European Union	EUR	CPI inflation data
Thu 3rd	1:30 PM	United States	USD	Non-Farm Payrolls
Tue 8th	5:30 AM	Australia	AUD	Reserve Bank of Australia meeting
Wed 9th	3:00 AM	New Zealand	NZD	Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting
Wed 9th	7:00 PM	United States	USD	US Federal Reserve meeting minutes
Fri 11th	7:00 AM	United Kingdom	GBP	GDP data
Tue 15th	1:30 PM	United States	USD	CPI inflation data
Wed 16th	7:00 AM	United Kingdom	GBP	CPI inflation data
Thu 17th	7:00 AM	United Kingdom	GBP	Unemployment & wage data
Thu 24th	8:15 AM	France	EUR	Manufacturing and Services PMIs
Thu 24th	8:30 AM	Germany	EUR	Manufacturing and Services PMIs
Thu 24th	9:30 AM	United Kingdom	GBP	Manufacturing and Services PMIs
Thu 24th	1:15 PM	European Union	EUR	European Central Bank meeting
Thu 24th	2:45 PM	United States	USD	Manufacturing and Services PMIs
Wed 30th	2:45 PM	Canada	CAD	Bank of Canada meeting
Wed 30th	7:00 PM	United States	USD	US Federal Reserve meeting
Thu 31st	Early AM	Japan	JPY	Bank of Japan meeting
Thu 31st	1:30 PM	United States	USD	GDP data
Thu 31st	1:30 PM	United States	USD	Core PCE Price Index

Interest Rate Summary

European Central Bank:

• Deposit interest rate: 2.00%
• Next meeting date: 24/07/2025
• Next meeting expectation: Hold
• Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 1.75%
• Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 1.75%

US Federal Reserve:

• Headline interest rate: 4.50%
• Next meeting date: 30/07/2025
• Next meeting expectation: Hold
• Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 3.75%
• Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 3.50%

Bank of England:

• Headline interest rate: 4.25%
• Next meeting date: 07/08/2025
• Next meeting expectation: Hold
• Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 3.75%
• Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 3.50%

Forecast Snapshot

Where do the banks think FX markets will be at the end of the 2025?

GBP/USD

• Current 1.37
• Barclays 1.35
• BNP Paribas 1.36
• Nomura 1.37
• UniCredit 1.33
• Wells Fargo 1.37
• Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.36

GBP/EUR

• Current 1.16
• Barclays 1.25
• BNP Paribas 1.15
• Nomura 1.14
• UniCredit 1.12
• Wells Fargo 1.16
• Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.16

EUR/USD

• Current 1.18
• Barclays 1.06
• BNP Paribas 1.18
• Nomura 1.20
• UniCredit 1.12
• Wells Fargo 1.17
• Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.17

Read the newsletter in full.

July 2025 Newsletter

Best regards,

Damon"

 

Weekly FX Briefs

9th June 2025

19th May 2025

28th April 2025

14th April 2025

 

 

Contact

For further information and advice on Hull & Humber's ChamberFX, or for assistance with your currency strategy, please click here or contact Lorraine Holt at l.holt@hull-humber-chamber.co.uk or call 01482 324976.

 

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