ChamberFX Valuable Insights
These valuable insights are provided by Damon Ellam, International Payments UK, MoneyCorp. Damon is our regional representative and will be providing useful monthly FX forecasts to help chamber members with their currency strategies.
Good Morning
September is shaping up to be a pivotal month for FX markets, with central bank decisions, economic data, and political developments all in play.
In this newsletter, I’ve highlighted the key events and forecasts to help you make informed decisions. If you’d like to discuss how these might impact your business, I’m here to help.
All the best for the month ahead!
Damon
What’s driving FX markets in September?
Short-term FX market trends this month are once again being shaped primarily by interest rate expectations. This is especially evident in the US, where tensions between former President Trump and Fed Chair Powell are adding uncertainty to monetary policy and causing fluctuations in the dollar. Similar dynamics are playing out across the Eurozone, UK, and Switzerland.
Here are some of the key factors driving FX markets this month:
- Central Bank Decisions
As mentioned in my introduction, interest rate expectations are front and centre. The Federal Reserve meeting has the most potential to cause market volatility, closely followed by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank.
We also have the Canadian, Japanese & Australian central bank meetings, but these are less likely to throw up any surprises in FX markets.
- UK Autumn Budget (Coming Soon)
Although the Autumn Budget isn’t expected until October, early speculation around government spending and taxation could continue impacting the pound this month. We will have a Budget special report coming out in the next few weeks, so stay tuned for that! - UK Economic Data
Key figures like GDP growth and inflation (CPI) will help shape expectations for future interest rate decisions from the Bank of England. These data releases can cause short-term swings in GBP. I’m sure we are all hoping for a more positive UK GDP read this month, as UK economic growth has been widely described as “anaemic” in recent times, which would boost the pound in the short-term. - US Economic Indicators
US non-farm payrolls (jobs) data and CPI inflation data will be closely watched ahead of the Fed’s meeting. Another bad jobs data reading or lower-than-expected inflation could confirm a Fed rate cut, which would weaken USD in the short-term.
Similarly, the US GDP and Core PCE Price Index data later in the month will start to dictate the likelihood of future rate cuts.
Risk Event Calendar
Below is a calendar of key economic and political events likely to influence FX markets in September. Keep an eye on these dates for potential volatility.
|
Date (Sep) |
Time (UK) |
Country |
Currency |
Description |
|
Tue 2nd |
10:00 AM |
European Union |
EUR |
CPI inflation data |
|
Fri 5th |
1:30 PM |
United States |
USD |
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
Thu 11th |
1:15 PM |
European Union |
EUR |
European Central Bank meeting |
|
Thu 11th |
1:30 PM |
United States |
USD |
CPI inflation data |
|
Fri 12th |
7:00 AM |
United Kingdom |
GBP |
GDP data |
|
Tue 16th |
7:00 AM |
United Kingdom |
GBP |
Unemployment & wage data |
|
Wed 17th |
7:00 AM |
United Kingdom |
GBP |
CPI inflation data |
|
Wed 17th |
2:45 PM |
Canada |
CAD |
Bank of Canada meeting |
|
Wed 17th |
7:00 PM |
United States |
USD |
US Federal Reserve meeting |
|
Thu 18th |
12:00 PM |
United Kingdom |
GBP |
Bank of England meeting |
|
Fri 19th |
Early AM |
Japan |
JPY |
Bank of Japan meeting |
|
Tue 23rd |
8:15 AM |
France |
EUR |
Manufacturing and Services PMIs |
|
Tue 23rd |
8:30 AM |
Germany |
EUR |
Manufacturing and Services PMIs |
|
Tue 23rd |
9:30 AM |
United Kingdom |
GBP |
Manufacturing and Services PMIs |
|
Tue 23rd |
2:45 PM |
United States |
USD |
Manufacturing and Services PMIs |
|
Thu 25th |
8:30 AM |
Switzerland |
CHF |
Swiss National Bank meeting |
|
Thu 25th |
1:30 PM |
United States |
USD |
GDP data |
|
Fri 26th |
1:30 PM |
United States |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index |
|
Sat 27th |
All Day |
Australia |
AUD |
Parliamentary Elections |
|
Tue 30th |
5:30 AM |
Australia |
AUD |
Reserve Bank of Australia meeting |
Interest Rate Summary
Here's a summary of current interest rates and market expectations for major central banks.
European Central Bank:
· Deposit interest rate: 2.00%
· Next meeting date: 11/09/2025
· Next meeting expectation: Hold
· Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 2.00%
· Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 1.75%
US Federal Reserve:
· Headline interest rate: 4.50%
· Next meeting date: 17/09/2025
· Next meeting expectation: Cut to 4.25%
· Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 4.00%
· Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 3.25%
Bank of England:
· Headline interest rate: 4.00%
· Next meeting date: 18/09/2025
· Next meeting expectation: Hold
· Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 4.00%
· Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 3.75%
Forecast Snapshot
Here's where leading banks expect major currency pairs to land by December 2025.
GBP/USD
- Current 1.35
- Barclays 1.37
- BNP Paribas 1.38
- Citigroup 1.35
- Nomura 1.37
- UniCredit 1.33
- Wells Fargo 1.37
- Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.36
GBP/EUR
- Current 1.15
- Barclays 1.19
- BNP Paribas 1.15
- Citigroup 1.14
- Nomura 1.14
- UniCredit 1.12
- Wells Fargo 1.16
- Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.16
EUR/USD
- Current 1.17
- Barclays 1.15
- BNP Paribas 1.20
- Citigroup 1.18
- Nomura 1.20
- UniCredit 1.19
- Wells Fargo 1.18
- Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.18
Weekly FX Briefs
Contact
For further information and advice on Hull & Humber's ChamberFX, or for assistance with your currency strategy, please click here or contact Lorraine Holt at l.holt@hull-humber-chamber.co.uk or call 01482 324976.
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