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ChamberFX Weekly Brief

ChamberFX Weekly Brief

Keep up-to-date on foreign exchange developments and news with our ChamberFX weekly briefs and monthly newsletters. These valuable insights are provided by Damon Ellam, International Payments UK, MoneyCorp. Damon is our regional representative and will be providing useful monthly FX forecasts to help chamber members with their currency strategies.

Good Afternoon,

Welcome to my July newsletter. I hope you find it useful and informative.

Please see below my thoughts for this month, a calendar of the upcoming FX market risk events, as well as the interest rate & FX rate predictions.

If you’d like to discuss strategies for your business or need insights when navigating the upcoming risk events, feel free to reach out to me directly.

Additionally, if you know other businesses who could benefit from Moneycorp services, we’d love it if you could refer them to us.

Have a great month ahead!

Best,

Damon.

 

What’s driving FX markets in July?

USD

  • Federal Reserve Meeting (30th July): No rate change expected, but market-sensitive commentary could shift USD sentiment.
  • Rate Expectations & Political Pressure: President Trump is pushing for faster rate cuts and considering replacing Fed Chair Powell early, which could influence Fed policy and USD volatility.
  • Economic Data - CPI (15th July), GDP & Core PCE (31st July): These will be crucial for gauging inflation and growth, impacting rate expectations.
  • Geopolitical Risk: Heightened global tensions are affecting safe-haven flows, with the USD losing some of its traditional appeal.

GBP

  • Bank of England Meeting (8th August): July sentiment will be shaped by evolving rate expectations ahead of this meeting.
  • Economic Data - GDP (11th July) & CPI (16th July): These will influence BoE policy outlook and GBP strength.
  • Political Instability: Internal Labour Party tensions and declining public support for the government could create fiscal uncertainty, weakening the pound.

EUR

  • Strong Performance: EUR/USD up 15% year-to-date, driven by reduced confidence in the USD and increased investor preference for the EU.
  • ECB Meeting (24th July): Markets expect no further rate cuts in the next year, supporting euro strength.
  • Safe-Haven Shift: The euro is benefiting from a reallocation of global capital away from the US. If this changes for any reason, the market could shift in the opposite direction.

Risk Event Calendar

 

Date (Jul)

Time (UK)

Country

Currency

Description

Tue 1st

10:00 AM

European Union

EUR

CPI inflation data

Thu 3rd

1:30 PM

United States

USD

Non-Farm Payrolls

Tue 8th

5:30 AM

Australia

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting

Wed 9th

3:00 AM

New Zealand

NZD

Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting

Wed 9th

7:00 PM

United States

USD

US Federal Reserve meeting minutes

Fri 11th

7:00 AM

United Kingdom

GBP

GDP data

Tue 15th

1:30 PM

United States

USD

CPI inflation data

Wed 16th

7:00 AM

United Kingdom

GBP

CPI inflation data

Thu 17th

7:00 AM

United Kingdom

GBP

Unemployment & wage data

Thu 24th

8:15 AM

France

EUR

Manufacturing and Services PMIs

Thu 24th

8:30 AM

Germany

EUR

Manufacturing and Services PMIs

Thu 24th

9:30 AM

United Kingdom

GBP

Manufacturing and Services PMIs

Thu 24th

1:15 PM

European Union

EUR

European Central Bank meeting

Thu 24th

2:45 PM

United States

USD

Manufacturing and Services PMIs

Wed 30th

2:45 PM

Canada

CAD

Bank of Canada meeting

Wed 30th

7:00 PM

United States

USD

US Federal Reserve meeting

Thu 31st

Early AM

Japan

JPY

Bank of Japan meeting

Thu 31st

1:30 PM

United States

USD

GDP data

Thu 31st

1:30 PM

United States

USD

Core PCE Price Index

Interest Rate Summary

European Central Bank:

  • Deposit interest rate: 2.00%
  • Next meeting date: 24/07/2025
  • Next meeting expectation: Hold
  • Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 1.75%
  • Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 1.75%

US Federal Reserve:

  • Headline interest rate: 4.50%
  • Next meeting date: 30/07/2025
  • Next meeting expectation: Hold
  • Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 3.75%
  • Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 3.50%

Bank of England:

  • Headline interest rate: 4.25%
  • Next meeting date: 07/08/2025
  • Next meeting expectation: Hold
  • Expected interest rate on 31/12/2025: 3.75%
  • Expected interest rate on 30/06/2026: 3.50%

Forecast Snapshot

Where do the banks think FX markets will be at the end of the 2025?

GBP/USD

  • Current 1.37
  • Barclays 1.35
  • BNP Paribas 1.36
  • Nomura 1.37
  • UniCredit 1.33
  • Wells Fargo 1.37
  • Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.36

GBP/EUR

  • Current 1.16
  • Barclays 1.25
  • BNP Paribas 1.15
  • Nomura 1.14
  • UniCredit 1.12
  • Wells Fargo 1.16
  • Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.16

EUR/USD

  • Current 1.18
  • Barclays 1.06
  • BNP Paribas 1.18
  • Nomura 1.20
  • UniCredit 1.12
  • Wells Fargo 1.17
  • Bloomberg Consensus Median 1.17

Read the newsletter in full.

July 2025 Newsletter

Best regards,

Damon"

 

Weekly FX Briefs

9th June 2025

19th May 2025

28th April 2025

14th April 2025

 

 

Contact

For further information and advice on Hull & Humber's ChamberFX, or for assistance with your currency strategy, please click here or contact Lorraine Holt at l.holt@hull-humber-chamber.co.uk or call 01482 324976.

 

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